@article {883, title = {Climate Change, Connectivity, and Conservation Success.}, journal = {Conservation Biology}, volume = {25}, year = {2011}, chapter = {1139-1142.}, author = {Hannah, L} } @article {754, title = {Scale effects in species distribution models: implications for conservation planning under climate change}, journal = {Biology Letters}, volume = {5}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {39-43}, abstract = {

Predictions of future species\&$\#$39; ranges under climate change are needed for conservation planning, for which species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used. However, global climate model-based (GCM) output grids can bias the area identified as suitable when these are used as SDM predictor variables, because GCM outputs, typically at least 50\Ã\—50\â\€\Škm, are biologically coarse. We tested the assumption that species ranges can be equally well portrayed in SDMs operating on base data of different grid sizes by comparing SDM performance statistics and area selected by four SDMs run at seven grid sizes, for nine species of contrasting range size. Area selected was disproportionately larger for SDMs run on larger grid sizes, indicating a cut-off point above which model results were less reliable. Up to 2.89 times more species range area was selected by SDMs operating on grids above 50\Ã\—50\â\€\Škm, compared to SDMs operating at 1\â\€\Škm. Spatial congruence between areas selected as range also diverged as grid size increased, particularly for species with ranges between 20\â\€\Š000 and 90\â\€\Š000\â\€\Škm. These results indicate the need for caution when using such data to plan future protected areas, because an overly large predicted range could lead to inappropriate reserve location selection.

}, keywords = {global climate models, grid size sensitivity analysis, sensitivity analysis, species range}, url = {http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/5/1/39.abstract}, author = {Seo, Changwan and Thorne, James H. and Hannah, L and Thuiller, Wilfried} } @article {439, title = {Protected area needs in a changing climate}, journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment}, volume = {5}, number = {3}, year = {2007}, pages = {131{\textendash}138}, abstract = {

Range shifts due to climate change may cause species to move out of protected areas. Climate change could therefore result in species range dynamics that reduce the relevance of current fixed protected areas in future conservation strategies. Here, we apply species distribution modeling and conservation planning tools in three regions (Mexico, the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, and Western Europe) to examine the need for additional protected areas in light of anticipated species range shifts caused by climate change. We set species representation targets and assessed the area required to meet those targets in the present and in the future, under a moderate climate change scenario. Our findings indicate that protected areas can be an important conservation strategy in such a scenario, and that early action may be both more effective and less costly than inaction or delayed action. According to our projections, costs may vary among regions and none of the three areas studied will fully meet all conservation targets, even under a moderate climate change scenario. This suggests that limiting climate change is an essential complement to adding protected areas for conservation of biodiversity.

}, author = {Hannah, L and Midgley, Guy and Andelman, Sandy and Ara{\'u}jo, Miguel and Hughes, Greg and Martinez-Meyer, Enrique and Pearson, Richard and Williams, Paul} } @article {438, title = {The view from the Cape: Extinction risk, protected areas, and climate change}, journal = {BioScience}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, year = {2005}, pages = {231-242}, abstract = {

In the past decade, a growing number of studies have modeled the effects of climate change on large numbers of species across diverse focal regions. Many common points emerge from these studies, but it can be difficult to understand the consequences for conservation when data for large numbers of species are summarized. Here we use an in-depth example, the multispecies modeling effort that has been conducted for the proteas of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to illustrate lessons learned in this and other multispecies modeling efforts. Modeling shows that a substantial number of species may lose all suitable range and many may lose all representation in protected areas as a result of climate change, while a much larger number may experience major loss in the amount of their range that is protected. The spatial distribution of protected areas, particularly between lowlands and uplands, is an important determinant of the likely conservation consequences of climate change.

}, keywords = {proteas nature reserve Cape Florisitc Region}, author = {Hannah, L and Midgley, G. and Hughes, G. and Bomhard, B.} }